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could see a billion climate refugees, and it was It’s turned into a wretched century, which is
5
beginning to appear it was unnervingly correct. considerably better than a catastrophic one.
What could the rich countries say? These We ended up with the most profound and
were people who hadn’t caused the crisis now most dangerous physical changes in human
devouring their lives, and there weren’t enough history. Our civilization surely teetered — and an
walls and cages to keep them at bay, so the enormous number of people paid an unfair and
migrations kept roiling the politics of the planet. overwhelming price — but it did not fall.
There were, in fact, two possible ways People have learned to defend what can be 20
Redefining America
forward. The most obvious path was a constant practically defended: expensive seawalls and
competition between nations and individuals to pumps mean New York is still New York, though
see who could thrive in this new climate regime, the Antarctic may yet have something to say on
with luckier places turning themselves into the subject. Other places we’ve learned to let go:
fortresses above the flood. Indeed some people much of the East Coast has moved in a few miles,
in some places tried to cling to old notions: plug to more defensible ground. Yes, that took trillions
in some solar panels and they could somehow of dollars in real estate off the board — but the
return to a more naive world, where economic roads and the bridges would have cost trillions to
expansion was still the goal of every government. defend, and even then the odds were bad.
But there was a second response that Cities look different now — much more
4
carried the day in most countries, as growing densely populated, as NIMBY defenses against
numbers of people came to understand that new development gave way to an increasingly
the ground beneath our feet had truly shifted. vibrant urbanism. Smart municipalities banned
If the economy was the lens through which we’d private cars from the center of town, opening
viewed the world for a century, now survival up free public-transit systems and building civic
was the only sensible basis on which to make fleets of self-driving cars that got rid of the space
decisions. Those decisions targeted not just wasted on parking spots. But rural districts have
carbon dioxide; these societies went after the changed too: the erratic weather put a premium
wild inequality that also marked the age. The on hands-on agricultural skills, which in turn
Green New Deal turned out to be everything provided opportunities for migrants arriving
the Koch brothers had most feared when it was from ruined farmlands elsewhere. (Farming
introduced: a tool to make America a fairer, around solar panels has become a particular
healthier, better-educated place. It was emulated specialty.) America’s rail network is not quite as
around the world, just as America’s Clean Air good as it was in the early 20th century, but it
3
Act had long served as a template for laws gets closer each year, which is good news since
across the globe. Slowly both the Keeling Curve, low-carbon air travel proved hard to get off the
measuring carbon in the atmosphere, and the ground.
Gini coefficient, measuring the distribution of What’s changed most of all is the mood. The
wealth, began to flatten. defiant notion that we would forever overcome
That’s where we are today. We clearly did nature has given way to pride of a different
not “escape” climate change or “solve” global kind: increasingly we celebrate our ability to
warming — the temperature keeps climbing, bend without breaking, to adapt as gracefully
though the rate of increase has lessened. as possible to a natural world whose temper

3 Passed in 1963, the Clean Air Act limits air pollution on a 4 NIMBY is an acronym that stands for “not in my
national level. — Eds. backyard.” — Eds.
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