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TO THE STUDENT xvii332 PILLAR 3 Cognitiondecisions. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman identified several of these counterproductive heuristics. 10 One is the availability heuristic , which estimates the likelihood of events based on their availability in our memory. Information that is readily available in our memory can, indeed, be a good indicator that an event is likely. When I hear thunder, I am quick to assume that rain will follow because I have many instances available in my memory when thunder signaled rain. At other times, however, the information available in memory is not such a good indicator. The availability heuristic explains why many people are afraid to fly, but few think twice before getting into a car. Statistically, airline travel is much safer than traveling by car. 11 , 12 However, plane crashes and other flight emergencies are rare but dramatic events%u2014they get a lot of news coverage and tend to make a lasting impression on us. By comparison, auto accidents happen every day, and kill approximately 40,000 people per year in the United States. 13 But car accidents are so common that news media rarely report on them, making them less available in our minds. Kahneman%u2019s work with Tversky on how such cognitive factors influence judgment led to a Nobel Prize in 2002. It helps us explain how media coverage of rare events%u2014like shark attacks and billion-dollar lottery wins%u2014can lead us to%u00a0overestimate the frequency with which these events occur. In%u00a0such circumstances, our reasoning is based more on our emotions and less on statistical probability. 14 Overconfidence Have you ever made a plan to finish an assignment long before the due date, but found yourself racing to finish right before it was due? If so, you are in good company: many students (and other people!) find that it takes them twice as long as they thought it would to complete their projects. 15 , 16 Overconfidenceoccurs when our confidence is greater than our accuracy. Decisions tainted by overconfidence work their way into everyday life quite regularly. A friend of mine, the late psychologist Charles Brewer, often reminded people that %u201ceverything takes longer than it takes%u201d to help dampen the frustration born of overconfident planning. Researchers have demonstrated our tendency for overconfidence. One study asked participants to estimate answers to factual questions by completing such statements as %u201cI feel 98 percent certain that the population of New Zealand is more than ____________ but less than ____________ .%u201d Did the instruction to be 98 percent certain produce answers that were correct 98 percent of the time? Not even close. People were able to %u201ctrap%u201d the correct answer%u20143.7 million people%u2014only two-thirds of the time. The gap between certainty (98 percent) and accuracy (66 percent) was nicely concealed by overconfidence. 17 Even when participants are 100 percent certain of their answers, they are right only 85 percent of the time. 18 Why do so many of us appear programmed to make false, overconfident judgments so regularly? It may be a way to protect our well-being. Overconfidence is associated with happiness and making tough decisions more easily. 19 , 20 The overconfidence allows us to think everything will work out, and belief in our own judgment can keep us from fretting and stewing about things. availability heuristic Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory. DANIEL KAHNEMAN (1934%u20132024) Psychologist who, along with Amos Tversky, conducted research to discover factors that influence human judgment and decision making. He won the Nobel Prize in 2002 for this work. Andreas Rentz/Getty Images for Burda Mediaoverconfidence Confidence that is greater than accuracy. 334Thinking 20-1 How and why do we form concepts?%u2022 Our mind uses concepts to organize the world into mental categories. These mental categories%u2014including prototypes and concept hierarchies%u2014usually help us think quickly and efficiently. %u2022 Concept hierarchies keep mental information organized. 20-2 What roles do algorithms, heuristics, and insight play in the solution of problems?%u2022 An algorithm is a problem-solving strategy that guarantees a solution to a problem. %u2022 A heuristic is a rule-of-thumb problem-solving strategy that makes a solution more likely but does not guarantee a solution. %u2022 Insight is the sudden realization of a solution to a problem. 20-3 How can fixation, confirmation bias, and the use of heuristics, overconfidence, and framing influence the quality of our decisions?%u2022 A mental set is a tendency to approach a particular problem in a particular way. %u2022 Confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that supports preconceptions. %u2022 The availability heuristic estimates the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory; it can either enhance or hinder problem solving. %u2022 Overconfidence occurs when confidence in an answer is greater than accuracy. %u2022 Framing is the way an issue is presented or worded; it affects what solutions are thought of and produced. cognitive abilities, p. 324 concept, p. 324 prototype, p. 325 algorithm, p. 327 heuristic, p. 327 insight, p. 328 mental set, p. 329 fixation, p. 329 functional fixedness, p. 330 confirmation bias, p. 331 availability heuristic, p. 332 overconfidence, p. 332 framing, p. 333 Daniel Kahneman (1934%u20132024), p. 332 KEY TERMS AND KEY PEOPLE Summative Assessment 1. What is a prototype? a. A detailed model of something b. The typical example of a concept c. A group of similar ideas d. A category of examples 2. Which of the following is a heuristic? a. Retracing your steps to find where you left your phone b. Looking in every cupboard to find a pan you know is in the kitchen c. Trying every unused piece in every space to fit in the last 20 pieces in a jigsaw puzzle d. Going through the football team roster to identify all of the linebackers on the team Learn the vocabulary. Watch for the Key Terms in the margins, which define each boldface term, and read the Key People biographies for a brief introduction to the most important psychologists and theorists discussed in the text. The key terms and key figures are repeated in the Summary and Assessment section at the end of the module, and the key terms for the entire text are collected in the Glossary/Glosario at the end of the book. 314 PILLAR 3 CognitionOne researcher was interested in how well people remembered the vocabulary they had learned in Spanish class decades earlier. He found that most vocabulary was lost in three years, but after that initial loss the forgetting curve leveled off. Words people remembered after three years were likely to remain in their memories a half-century later. The term permastore memory is used to describe these longterm memories that are especially resistant to forgetting and are likely to last a lifetime. We still don%u2019t know enough about how long-term memories are stored in the brain to understand whether they actually decay with time. The research on permastore memory seems to indicate that some memories do not decay. It will be interesting to see whether future research demonstrates a change in the physical storage of the memories that decay. What we do know for sure is that we sometimes forget because we are unable to retrieve memories that are still stored. permastore memory Longterm memories that are especially resistant to forgetting and that are likely to last a lifetime. MAKE IT STICK! 1. High school students learning a second language are likely to remember new vocabulary for a half-century or more if they still remember it after a. 6 months. b. 30 days. c. 3 years. d. 10 years. 2. Which of the following statements about the forgetting curve is true?a. Forgetting is rapid at first and then tapers off. b. Forgetting is gradual at first and then increases as more time passes. c. Forgetting is basically random%u2014its rate increases and decreases unpredictably. d. The rate of forgetting is constant over time. Forgetting as Retrieval Failure 19-3 How does retrieval failure lead to forgetting? Retrieval failure probably accounts for most of our forgetting. You%u2019ve encoded and stored the information. It%u2019s in there, but you can%u2019t get it out. Sometimes this is true because the memory you%u2019re after is being disrupted by interference . At other times you may have a reason to not remember, leading to motivated forgetting . Interference Interference is a retrieval problem that occurs when one memory gets in the way of another. Have you ever tossed a pebble into a still pool of water? It%u2019s fun to watch the concentric ripple circles radiate out from where the pebble hit the water. But what happens if you throw two pebbles at once? Now the ripple circles from the two pebbles start to collide with each other. Because of this competition, you can%u2019t see the circle patterns clearly. A similar thing happens with memories. When an older memory disrupts the recall of a newer memory, you experience proactive interference. Have you ever had to learn a new cell phone number? When you get the new number, you sit down and rehearse it until you commit it to memory. But later on, when somebody asks you for your new number, you may be unable to retrieve it by memory alone. When you follow the retrieval pathway in your brain to %u201cmy phone proactive interference An older memory%u2019s disruption of the recall of a newer memory. How well did you remember the details about the U.S. coins asked for on page 312? %u2022 In Figure 19.1 , penny (a) is the real penny. %u2022 The text on the back of a dime reads %u201cone dime.%u201d %u2022 The back of a quarter reads %u201cquarter dollar.%u201d %u2022 On the penny, Lincoln faces to your right; on the quarter, Washington faces to your left. Find cartoon Charlie and Randy throughout the book for reminders of especially critical concepts, study tips and tricks, and connections to everyday life. %u00a9 Bedford, Freeman & Worth Publishers. For review purposes only. 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